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Bayesian inference has become a standard method of analysis in many fields of science. Students and researchers in experimental psychology and cognitive science, however, have failed to take full advantage of the new and exciting possibilities that the Bayesian approach affords. Ideal for teaching and self study, this book demonstrates how to do Bayesian modeling. Short, to-the-point chapters offer examples, exercises, and computer code (using WinBUGS or JAGS, and supported by Matlab and R), with additional support available online. No advance knowledge of statistics is required and, from the very start, readers are encouraged to apply and adjust Bayesian analyses by themselves. The book contains a series of chapters on parameter estimation and model selection, followed by detailed case studies from cognitive science. After working through this book, readers should be able to build their own Bayesian models, apply the models to their own data, and draw their own conclusions.
?This book presents a rigorous treatment of the mathematical instruments available for dealing with income distributions, in particular Lorenz curves and related methods. The methods examined allow us to analyze, compare and modify such distributions from an economic and social perspective. Though balanced income distributions are key to peaceful coexistence within and between nations, it is often difficult to identify the right kind of balance needed, because there is an interesting interaction with innovation and economic growth. The issue of justice, as discussed in Thomas Piketty's bestseller "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" or in the important book "The Price of Inequality" by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, is also touched on. Further, there is a close connection to the issue of democracy in the context of globalization. One highlight of the book is its rigorous treatment of the so-called Atkinson theorem and some extensions, which help to explain under which type of societal utility functions nations tend to operate either in the direction of more balance or less balance. Finally, there are some completely new insights into changing the balance pattern of societies and the kind of coalitions between richer and poorer parts of society to organize political support in democracies in either case.
Oxford University's Sir Tony Atkinson, well known for his so-called Atkinson theorem, writes in his foreword to the book: "[The authors] contribute directly to the recent debates that are going on in politics.  with this book the foundation of arguments concerning a proper balance in income distribution in the sense of identifying an 'efficient inequality range' has got an additional push from mathematics, which I appreciate very much."
<b>Praise for <i>Modeling for Insight</i></b> <p> "Most books on modeling are either too theoretical or too focused on the mechanics of programming. Powell and Batt's emphasis on using simple spreadsheet models to gain business insight (which is, after all, the name of the game) is what makes this book stand head and shoulders above the rest. This clear and practical book deserves a place on the shelf of every business analyst."<br> —Jonathan Koomey, PhD, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Stanford University, author of <i>Turning Numbers into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving</i> <p> Most business analysts are familiar with using spreadsheets to organize data and build routine models. However, analysts often struggle when faced with examining new and ill-structured problems. <i>Modeling for Insight</i> is a one-of-a-kind guide to building effective spreadsheet models and using them to generate insights. With its hands-on approach, this book provides readers with an effective modeling process and specific modeling tools to become a master modeler. <p> The authors provide a structured approach to problem-solving using four main steps: frame the problem, diagram the problem, build a model, and generate insights. Extensive examples, graduated in difficulty, help readers to internalize this modeling process, while also demonstrating the application of important modeling tools, including: <ul> <li> <p> Influence diagrams <li> <p> Spreadsheet engineering <li> <p> Parameterization <li> <p> Sensitivity analysis <li> <p> Strategy analysis <li> <p> Iterative modeling </ul> <p> The real-world examples found in the book are drawn from a wide range of fields such as financial planning, insurance, pharmaceuticals, advertising, and manufacturing. Each chapter concludes with a discussion on how to use the insights drawn from these models to create an effective business presentation. Microsoft Office Excel and PowerPoint are used throughout the book, along with the add-ins Premium Solver, Crystal Ball, and Sensitivity Toolkit. Detailed appendices guide readers through the use of these software packages, and the spreadsheet models discussed in the book are available to download via the book's related Web site. <i>Modeling for Insight</i> is an ideal book for courses in engineering, operations research, and management science at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable resource for consultants and business analysts who often use spreadsheets to better understand complex problems.
The Stage 9 Biff, Chip and Kipper Stories, written by Roderick Hunt and illustrated by Alex Brychta, provide a rich story context to help develop language comprehension and decoding skills. Stories and More Stories A continue to provide a mix of fantasy settings and familiar situations. More complex sentences with conceptually more challenging storylines develop stamina, ensuring that readers will be able to progress to more demanding texts with confidence. The new-style inside cover notes provide advice and support to help adults read and explore the story with the child, supporting their decoding and language comprehension development. Each pack of 6 includes a Group/Guided Reading Notes Booklet with a Vocabulary Chart listing high frequency tricky words and a Curriculum Coverage Chart for England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. Each story has individual notes and suggested activities for Group and Independent Reading, Speaking, listening and drama and Writing, with each section showing the relevant objectives covered. Decoding and Language Comprehension opportunities are highlighted throughout.
Floods constitute a persistent and serious problem throughout the United States and many other parts of the world. They are respon- sible for losses amounting to billions of dollars and scores of deaths annually. Virtually all parts of the nation--coastal, mountainous and rural--are affected by them. Two aspects of the problem of flooding that have long been topics of scientific inquiry are flood frequency and risk analyses. Many new, even improved, techniques have recently been developed for performing these analyses. Nevertheless, actual experience points out that the frequency of say a 100-year flood, in lieu of being encountered on the average once in one hundred years, may be as little as once in 25 years. It is therefore appropriate to pause and ask where we are, where we are going and where we ought to be going with regard to the technology of flood frequency and risk analyses. One way to address these questions is to provide a forum where people from all quarters of the world can assemble, discuss and share their experience and expertise pertaining to flood frequency and risk analyses. This is what constituted the motivation for organizing the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses held May 14-17, 1986, at Louisiana State University, Bat-on Rouge, Louisiana.
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