This book is about how models can be developed to represent demand and supply on markets, where the emphasis is on demand models. Its primary focus is on models that can be used by managers to support marketing decisions. The market environment is changing rapidly and constantly. Prior to the introduction of scanner equipment in retail outlets, ACNielsen, the major supplier of information on brand performance, claimed that its business was to provide the score but not to explain or predict it. With technological advances and the introduction of the Internet, the opportunity to obtain meaningful estimates of demand functions has vastly improved; models that provide information about the sensitivity of market behavior to marketing activities such as advertising, pricing, promotions and distribution are now routinely used by managers for the identification of changes in marketing programs that can improve brand performance. In today's environment of information overload, the challenge is to make sense of the data that is being provided globally, in real time, from thousands of sources. Modeling Markets presents a comprehensive overview of the tools and methodologies that managers can use in decision making. It has long been known that even simple models outperform judgments in predicting outcomes in a wide variety of contexts. More complex models potentially provide insights about structural relations not available from casual observations. Although marketing models are now widely accepted, the quality of the marketing decisions is critically dependent upon the quality of the models on which those decisions are based. In this book, the authors present a wealth of insights developed at the forefront of the field, covering all key aspects of specification, estimation, validation and use of models. The most current insights and innovations in quantitative marketing are presented, including in-depth discussion of Bayesian estimation methods. Throughout the book, the authors provide examples and illustrations. This book will be of interest to researchers, analysts, managers and students who want to understand, develop or use models of marketing phenomena.
This book bridges probabilistic risk assessment methodologies, including Monte Carlo and Bayesian, and practical application of these techniques to support food safety decision makers. Focused on a topic of increased international concern (for example, the 2008 e coli outbreak in US and Mexico lettuce), the book illustrates how methods are applied through chapter case studies on contamination in pathogen contamination in leafy greens, mercury contamination in fish, and risks of listeria. Its approach fits in with the 2008 National Research Council guidance on risk assessment.
The Black Sea ecosystem is a unique marine environment. Its isolation from the ocean and large catchment basin, covering industrial and rural parts of the European and Asian continents, render the Black Sea ecosystem extremely vulnerable to the imposed environmental burdens Complex scientific problems related to the recent evolution of the Black Sea ecosystem were tackled in the framework of the NATO TU BLACK SEA project Ecosystem modelling as a management tool for the Black Sea', implemented between 1993 and 1997. The primary results and the products of the TU BLACK SEA project were presented to the scientific community at a dedicated symposium held on 15-19 June, 1997 at Zori Rossii on the Crimean coast of the Black Sea. The present two volumes contain 47 of the papers presented at the symposium, selected by peer review. Volume I contains 27 papers in all, two on the NATO TU Black SEA database and database management system, eight on the Black Sea biogeochemistry, and 17 on the biological structure of the basin. Of the 20 papers appearing in Volume II, nine are physical processes and 11 are on the modelling of the circulation and the ecosystems of the Black Sea.
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