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Medical decision making has evolved in recent years, as more complex problems are being faced and addressed based on increasingly large amounts of data. In parallel, advances in computing have led to a host of new and powerful statistical tools to support decision making. Simulation-based Bayesian methods are especially promising, as they provide a unified framework for data collection, inference, and decision making. In addition, these methods are simple to interpret, and can help to address the most pressing practical and ethical concerns arising in medical decision making.<br> * Provides an overview of the necessary methodological background, including Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo simulation, and utility theory.<br> * Driven by three real applications, presented as extensively detailed case studies.<br> * Case studies include simplified versions of the analysis, to approach complex modelling in stages.<br> * Features coverage of meta-analysis, decision analysis, and comprehensive decision modeling.<br> * Accessible to readers with only a basic statistical knowledge.<br> Primarily aimed at students and practitioners of biostatistics, the book will also appeal to those working in statistics, medical informatics, evidence-based medicine, health economics, health services research, and health policy.
The third colourful and action-packed Victorian detective novel about the exploits of agent Mary Quinn. Queen Victoria has a little problem: a series of petty thefts from Buckingham Palace. She calls the Agency for help, and they put Mary Quinn - on her first case as a full-fledged agent - on the case. Going undercover as a domestic servant, Mary's assignment seems simple enough. But before long, a scandal threatens to tear apart the Royal Family. One of the Prince of Wales's irresponsible young friends is murdered in scandalous circumstances and the story, if it became public, would disgrace the young prince. Should the Queen hush things up or permit justice to take its course? Mary's interest in this private matter soon becomes deeply personal: the killer, a drug-addicted Chinese sailor, shares a name with her long-lost father. Meanwhile, James Easton's engineering firm wins a contract to repair some sewers beneath Buckingham Palace. Trouble is, there's a tunnel that's not on the plans. Its purpose is unclear. But it seems to be very much in use - it's just not clear by whom. These overlapping puzzles offer a perfect opportunity for James and Mary to work together again. If they can still trust one another. If they can suppress the emotions that still torture them. If Mary can forget the sight of that exquisite blonde she sees in James's drawing-room...In this, Mary's most personal case yet, she faces struggles at every level - legal, political, personal. And she has everything to lose.
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